Handling Finances

I was talking to a coworker of mine who has an MBA about one of the biggest lessons in business management classes that gets ignored not only in business management, but in national policy and yes, in our own personal finances.  Quite simply, it is never wise to base major decisions on ANY single event!  Terrorism is a big problem worldwide, but the additional safety to our airplanes of having our nail clippers confiscated and eye-drops visible in plastic baggies is insignificant compared to the added cost of even badly enforcing these new rules.  Some oversight of mortgage brokers would be a good thing, but it should be broad and loose rather than simply cracking down hard on a specific two or three practices that led to the recent increase in forclosures.  And yes, spending less than you earn is a great idea, but you shouldn’t decide to save just because you declared bankruptcy!

That’s right, even good decisions should never be based on rare events.  You shouldn’t decide to go with a used car because a friend had to fight with a dealer over whether their new car was a lemon.  You shouldn’t ride your bike to work because you normally drive over a bridge and you heard about the 35-W bridge collapse.  You certainly shouldn’t save for retirement because Enron went bankrupt and their pensions became worthless.

Emotions are healthy, but they can never be trusted to drive major decisions. If you’re looking to buy a car, certainly take the chances of buying a lemon into account, but only as part of your decision.  Look carefully at the price differences, warranties, reviews, safety information, fuel effiency etc…  You might end up buying a used car anyway, but you won’t be risking your hard-earned cash on a hasty decision.  Similarly, don’t save for retirement just because Enron’s collapse scared you — evaluate your expected income from social security, private pensions, annuities etc… and look carefully at how likely they’ll be there until you die.  Hopefully you do decide to save significantly for the time when you may be unable to work, but you’ll be better educated to be able to decide how much you’ll need each year and how much you need to save to meet your goals.

Unfortunately, we are wired to make snap decisions based on emotions. It’s a great survival trick from back when we had to choose to fight or run when staring into the eyes of a tiger.  It’s a great way to be manipulated though as politicians routinely use natural disasters or (in these days) terrorist attacks to get votes.  Yes, it’s best to have FEMA be prepared to respond to the next emergency, and we certainly want to avoid as many terrorist attacks as possible!  Still, it’s important to evaluate the facts — would adding a billion dollars to the INS budget really prevent determined terrorists from bombing shopping malls?  What about ten billion, a hundred billion?  How much liquid does a potential terrorist need to down a plane?  (answer: less than you could fit in a shampoo bottle).  Will suspending the national gas tax bring down the price of gas?  I haven’t yet heard a professional energy analyst say yes — we’d perceive gas prices as a “deal” and increased use would push the price far higher than the 18 cent “sale.”

Of course, emotions are a vital part of being human and they can’t be ignored either.  Any decision should certainly take into account our stress levels and how a decision will affect us emotionally! In some cases, as with tragedies that affect us and our families, emotional factors may even be the primary reason for making a particular decision.  Even when that happens, though, it’s important to step back, look at the facts, and then choose one way or another.  Because while you might feel better for a little while in a large new house to soothe your feelings about living in a tiny shack as a child, reality will eventually catch up and you might wish you’d looked at facts as you’re being evicted.

Everybody has their favorite pet theory about why gas prices are so high. It could be the evil excessive profits taken by oil companies, risky speculation by profit-seeking investors, a simple case of supply vs. demand or all/none of the above. It’s very hard to know since most of these effects are unquantifiable and it seems like politics has more to do with a person’s answers than actual facts.
Whatever the cause, high gas prices aren’t as bad as most people seem to think. Here in America, gas has been almost ridiculously cheap compared to the rest of the world. By itself that’s not a problem or anything, but it does mean that we’ve become used to thinking of gas as an abundant and cheap source of energy. We’ve built an entire country with sprawling suburbs and extremely limited train and subway access that heavily depends on cheap and abundant gasoline. We’ve scorned fuel efficiency and invested heavily in the largest, most powerful vehicles.

Since oil takes millions of years to form in any useful quantities, it is clearly a limited resource at the rate we’re using it! I should qualify that — we will never run out of oil altogether, it will just become more and more expensive to extract from the ground until some other form of energy is cheaper. We know we’re going to run out of oil at some point, so clearly we need to prepare well in advance. Except, we’re not remotely prepared. We’re decades away from any other fuel source for our vehicles and that’s assuming significant investment for those decades.

One option that gets thrown around a lot is to allow drilling in X or Y location that is currently being protected for Z reason. This will make the situation worse — prices will drop, investment will drop with it and we’ll be right where we started except X and Y reserves will now be depleted.

An unpopular solution.

Quite simply, we need to feel some pain in order to prepare for the future. When prices are low, some people simply deny that there will ever be a problem, the majority simply doesn’t care as long as their tanks are full and a second minority complains ineffectively that our increasing suburban sprawl and refusal to develop alternative technologies or even simply more fuel-efficient vehicles is just digging us further into a hole. When prices hit $3.00 per gallon in America, the former and latter groups grew for a while and then everybody went back to not caring. Now that gas costs $4.00 per gallon, people are really starting to hurt and put a significant bit of money toward changing our habits now so we can avoid wasting a huge amount of money changing once we’ve exhausted our last reserves and gas jumps to $5.00 or $6.00.

High gas prices aren’t all good — the poorest among us who have no cushion will suffer the most as they have to choose between gas to get to work and food. I certainly don’t enjoy paying twice as much for gas as a couple years ago. At the same time, this is the first I’ve seen long-term efforts to increase the reach of mass transit, to develop electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles and to actually make token efforts to use currently available technologies to increase fuel efficiency in the average American car.

I won’t claim that the days of the 4-car family or the 1-kid family with and SUV and pickup that gets used once a year are over. Many of us have grown quite accustomed to the convenience of these light trucks even if we could easily do without. I’ve even heard some people who genuinely feel entitled to the affordable use of a Ford F-350 used primarily in a daily hour-long freeway commute. In the end though, we’re just going through the pain at the start of any new exercise routine. It won’t be easy, and it might not feel good at first, but in the end, we’ll stop wasting a limited resource, limit pollution, and save billions of dollars that are currently going toward oil companies and oil producing countries. And hey, if we can avoid pumping up the last of the American reserves in the process, then we might truly become less dependent on foreign oil rather than putting ourselves in a desperate position by using all our oil first.

Now that people are starting to get their tax rebates, our economy is in for some serious stimulation!  The idea is that we’re supposed to go out and buy new stuff which will keep businesses rolling along which will keep people employed.  Some might argue that we need a recession to drive inefficient companies out of business (freeing up workers and resources for better-run companies) but it’s a rather unpopular idea — especially now that our retirement savings are almost universally invested in the stock markets after years of our government giving tax breaks for 401(k) contributions.

If we step back for a moment and consider that the economy won’t totally collapse if every penny of the 100 billion is turned into profits and wages (it won’t), it will become clear that paying off debt will actually do as much or more to stimulate the economy than simply spending on consumer products.

Increasing future spending.

First of all, with every penny you pay back on your debt, you free up the monthly interest to be spent on other things.  Putting the $600 individual rebate toward debt could save as much as $150 a year in interest at an all-to-common 25% interest rate!  Today’s politicians are no-doubt counting on the stimulus today so they can take credit for the booming economy, but if we’re willing to think just a couple years out, the sustained effect of $100 billion less debt would be huge (and wouldn’t largely be wasted in profits to foreign countries).

Free up financial markets.

One of the biggest reasons for the current recessionary scare is sub-prime lending.  Sub-prime lending is hugely profitable as long as the economy is booming because lenders can charge exorbitant interest rates that more than cover defaults.  Of course, the banks book their profit each year and don’t generally set aside some of that profit to cover future defaults if the economy goes bad (or it wouldn’t be profit) so they’re stuck with huge numbers of bad loans that are no longer profitable as people become unable to repay them.

Banks don’t really want you to pay back your loan faster since they don’t earn as much interest that way, but in this case, the financial markets are so gummed up that every dollar they get back will be one more dollar they can lend out — further greasing the skids of our economy and getting everything moving again.

Ultimately, do what’s best for you!

Nobody’s trying to tell you what to do with your money, but I hate to hear people say that you should spend it or save it.  Politicians will benefit more if you spend it ASAP and make them look like they lead the economy well.  Companies worldwide will benefit more if you spend it on consumer products and a small fraction of it will go towards jobs.  The economy will benefit if loans are repaid (especially sub-prime loans) and banks will benefit if you continue to make minimum payments no matter what else you do.

In the end, look for where the money will do the most good in your personal financial situation.  While there are no strings attached, with the government running a huge yearly deficit (it doesn’t look so bad until you add in the regular “emergency was spending” to the budget), we’ll get stuck with the tab in the form of increased taxes or decreased services (say a 50% cut in social security payments?) in the long run.  While I’m a big fan of doing what’s best for my country and the world, ultimately, what keeps you self-sufficient will benefit those around you the most in the long-run.